How early-season shot selection shifts are impacting fantasy basketball value

We’re far enough into the season to notice something useful, as long as we’re careful about what we’re measuring. Scoring averages and shooting percentages can swing a lot over the first few weeks. Where a player takes his shots tends to settle faster, so it’s a better place to start.

In testing this for 2025-26, Tall Order Digital found that among 156 qualifying players, shot-zone shares over the first four games correlated with the rest of the season at 0.72 to 0.86 (a perfect match would be 1.0). Field-goal percentage correlated at just 0.46.

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To see what the shifts are doing to fantasy basketball value, I’ve listed each player’s preseason ADP next to his current 9-cat rank (through Nov. 11). Shot data is Basketball-Reference totals as of Nov. 11, compared with last season or a career mark.

Where the shift is working

Luka Dončić and De’Aaron Fox are ranked higher than where they were drafted, and Michael Porter Jr. has climbed despite scoring less. In all three cases, the revised shot profiles are landing and netting positive results.

Luka Dončić, PG/SG, Los Angeles Lakers (ADP: 3, Current Rank: 2)

He’s launching 13.4 3s a game, up from 10.8 last season (which led the NBA). His 3-point share has risen from .476 to .549, and last year’s .476 was already a career high. The bigger move is at the rim, where his share has dropped from .076 to .060. He’s making 40.8% of his 3s and averaging 38.6 points in 11 games. 

Doncic (LAL, 11 G, 268 FGA)

2026-27

2025-26

Career

3P share

.549

.476

.433

0-3 ft

.060

.076

.153

3-10 ft

.149

.198

.214

10-16 ft

.175

.186

.143

16 ft-3P

.067

.063

.057

FTr

.444

.443

.404

Avg shot distance (ft)

19.5

17.8

16.5

De’Aaron Fox, PG, Spurs (ADP: 78, Current Rank: 57)

Fox is getting to the line far more often. He’s attempted 53 free throws on 111 field-goal attempts, a free-throw rate of .477, compared with .235 last year and a .316 career mark. His career high is .420, set in 2019-20, so this is a new peak.

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It isn’t coming from more shots at the rim, though. His rim share is flat (.207 vs .201). What changed is the middle of the floor. Shots from 3-10 feet jumped from .204 to .315 of his attempts,…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/how-early-season-shot-selection-shifts-are-impacting-fantasy-basketball-value-202116660.html

Author : Dan Titus

Publish date : 2026-11-12 20:21:00

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