We asked oddsmakers to rank the 74 most important NBA players against the spread: Nikola Jokić, Wemby top the list

Over the summer, I asked a group of oddsmakers to rank all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks by their value to the point spread. While there are some other NFL skill position players — and offensive linemen and defensive players, as well — who have value to the spread, the NBA is a whole different ballgame, as only five players are on the court for a team at one time.

In a league where figuring out which players are playing on any given night is a daily challenge, an NBA superstar can have an outsized impact on the point spread — and it’s valuable for bettors to know how much oddsmakers believe those players are worth.

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To help determine this, I asked a group of five oddsmakers to rank the NBA’s most important players against the spread.

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The prompt I gave was: “If a player wasn’t on the injury report and then was declared out before the game, how much would the line move?”

There are many factors that go into making these numbers for oddsmakers, but here are a few:

Is the game in the regular season or playoffs?

Strength of the player’s backup

Relative strength of the rest of the roster

I sent oddsmakers a list of 74 NBA players and requested that they rank the point-spread value of each one. Then, I averaged the five values together to get a final number for every player.

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This is the third year I’ve done this exercise and Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić has been No. 1 all three times — and the only player worth more than five points against the spread every season. However, San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama is certainly closing the gap.

(Jonathan Castro/Yahoo Sports illustration)

It’s also the lowest LeBron James (T-32, 1.92 points ATS) has been over that time span, both due to his age and since his new team — the Philadelphia 76ers — have five players (James, Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown and VJ Edgecombe) all worth at least a point against the number, diminishing James’ value.

Here are the most valuable players in the NBA, ranked by their value against the spread.

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Top 5 NBA…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/betting/article/we-asked-oddsmakers-to-rank-the-74-most-important-nba-players-against-the-spread-nikola-jokic-wemby-top-the-list-132459434.html

Author : Ben Fawkes

Publish date : 2026-10-19 13:24:00

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