Half the Wizards roster will be under 23. That’s why they might be really good.

The Wizards will be better in 2026-27 than they’ve been the previous three seasons. Low bar, I know. But at least they were trying to be bad unlike a previous season almost 20 years ago where the basketball operations group were tasked by ownership with competing for a championship and assembled a roster that was so bad the only sane move was to trade away all the veterans. They finished the season 19-63.

That’s the reason I’m a Bullets fan…

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sigh

The official over/under betting line is 33.5 wins, which seems perfectly calibrated for wagering because who the heck really knows what this team will do. Under is plausible — a couple injuries to key guys (hi there Anthony Davis and Trae Young) a few youngsters who don’t progress as hoped, and voila we’re watching 28 minutes a night of Anthony Gill for the final 17 games of the season.

Could Alex Sarr make the leap to All-Star status in his third season? His second season suggests it’s a distinct possibility.
| Getty Images

The over is also seriously plausible because the team is so young. My research into “typical” NBA career patterns (which is similar to research by others) shows that players make their biggest improvements at ages 20-24 — biggest jumps coming at ages 21, 22, and 23 (in order).

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Here are Wizards players in that age group expected to be on the roster this season:

That’s half the roster. Some are more likely to leap than others, and some won’t. One or two might jump big. One or two might regress hard. I put “typical” in quotes above because career trajectories are averages based on a large sample of players. When it comes to individuals, there’s variation — lots of it. So these average effects are best guesses based on historical patterns. Players can (and will) defy the averages for the good and bad.

For example, a couple seasons ago, Sarr posted a 77 PPA as a 19-year-old rookie. (For the uninitiated, PPA is my all-around production metric, which accounts for things like pace, role, and defense. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.) The forecast using my career trajectory calculator…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/half-wizards-roster-under-23-110000671.html

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Publish date : 2026-09-17 11:00:00

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