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It’s a big day for the Spurs as they kick off their first Western Conference Finals appearance since 2017, and it’s against none other than an old rival who has given the Spurs a few very tough tests in their short existence in the Oklahoma City Thunder. Going up against the defending champions without homecourt advantage and with an unproven roster is daunting, and it’s easy to start getting nervous when you start really crunching the numbers. However, I’m choosing to look at the this serious from an optimistic view, and here is where I’m at:
1. The Spurs beat OKC in the regular season by daring average-ish shooters to shoot. This has already been pointed out, but here’s a short summary of the strategy: Wemby completely abandons Caruso, Dort, and others in the corner to guard the glass. I don’t think this is a sustainable strategy- I wouldn’t bet on Caruso to miss 10 wide open 3s this series, much less in an individual game. I thought the Wolves would be better equipped to exploit the Spurs use of Wemby zoning down low with Naz Reid, in particular, in the corner. But they never really leaned on that heavily enough. If we stick with that defensive strategy, OKC will find a way to exploit it. If we don’t have a clean counter, that could lead to OKC in 7, either through their main rotation players shooting better, or by dropping them from the rotation and playing guys like Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, as JG points out. But the latter has downstream effects that I’ll discuss later.
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2. Both teams are noticeably improved since they played in the regular season. The Thunder added more depth and versatility, and shooting, by adding McCain and providing a bigger role to Ajay Mitchell.
Meanwhile, the Spurs added more shooting, depth, and versatility through exponential internal growth. Even if Castle is an average to slightly above average shooter, instead of the elite shooter he’s been in the playoffs, that is a drastic swing in the Spurs favor. Most of our losses came from both not shooting well, and not shooting enough from distance. Castle, Harper, and Bryant all demonstrating…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/optimistic-preview-spurs-vs-thunder-201853909.html
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Publish date : 2026-05-18 20:18:00
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