Is Virginia’s basketball KenPom ranking unfair, or a sign of things to come?

Great things are expected of this 2026-27 Virginia men’s basketball team.

Many analysts, such as CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein, have predicted the Cavaliers to be a top-10 team. Virginia’s rare continuity is a big reason why – it returns a lethal core of Thijs De Ridder, Chance Mallory, Sam Lewis and Johann Grunloh.

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However, despite the talent retention and a few intriguing additions, there is a small crowd that leans more towards a pessimistic side. In the first KenPom rankings of the season, the Cavaliers were ranked No. 15 – certainly on the lower side compared to the general assessment of this team.

Virginia’s defense was ranked No. 9 nationally, while its offense was surprsingly spotted all the way down at No. 24 nationally.

Who was ranked ahead of Virginia?

There are a few teams which are unsurprisingly placed ahead of the Cavaliers. That list includes Duke, Florida, UConn, Illinois, Houston, Arizona and Michigan State. There is also a legitimate case for Vanderbilt, which beat Virginia in an exhibition game.

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There are also a few surprises on the respected KenPom rankings – particularly that Iowa State came in at No. 6 overall. Others ahead of the Cavaliers include Kansas, Texas, Alabama, Texas Tech and Gonzaga.

Offensive rating may be a significant underestimate

Virginia averaged 80.4 points per game last year, and De Ridder earned First Team All-ACC honors. It is also worth noting that it was the first season of high-major basketball for De Ridder, Mallory, Grunloh and Lewis. De Ridder ended up earning First Tea, All-ACC honors.

Each of those players should be even better this year, and more importantly, the chemistry with the rest of the core will be strong.

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In terms of starters, a sophomore Mallory is on track to be a significant upgrade over Malik Thomas in terms of efficiency. Mallory actually averaged more minutes per game, with nearly double the assists (3.4 APG to 1.5) and also a better shooting percentage (42.2 to 41.2 FG%).

Grunloh…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/virginias-basketball-kenpom-ranking-unfair-120006120.html

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Publish date : 2026-10-12 12:00:00

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