Ranking every first-year Power Five college basketball coach on their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament in year one

The honeymoon stage is nearly over for every college basketball coach taking on a new job, but for now optimism is widespread, and all of them remain undefeated at their new stops.

Whether it was due to NBA departures, mutual partings of ways, retirements, coach firings, or coaches leaving for other power-five jobs, 13 power-five jobs changed hands this cycle. The difference this cycle from past ones is that many of the jobs that changed hands are well equipped to win right away because resources were infused into the program to attract candidates.

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Everything from National Championship-winning jobs and blue blood jobs to seemingly obsolete ones opened in 2026-27 and went to a variety of candidates. Michigan hired from within. North Carolina and Butler went the NBA route. Creighton awarded its coach in waiting. Kansas State, Providence, Arizona State, Georgia Tech and Cincinnati plucked non-power five head coaches. NC State and Boston College plucked high-level power-five assistants. LSU made the cycle’s most controversial move by plucking a sitting Power Five head coach.

Every program listed believes it has its guy at this point, but which ones can win right away? Here’s a ranking of each program with a newly appointed head coach from most likely to least likely to make the NCAA Tournament in 2026-27.

No. 1: Michigan

New head coach: Mike Boynton

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Boynton has a chance to right his wrongs as a Power Five head coach after revitalizing his career as an assistant for Michigan’s 2026-27 team, and he has the best starting point of any year-one head coach in the sport.

Michigan returns one of America’s best guards in Final Four Most Outstanding point guard Elliot Cadeau and has the country’s biggest breakout candidate alongside him in sophomore guard Trey McKenney. Those two have proven themselves as some of the best guards in the Big 10, and they also know how to win and fit the league’s identity with their physicality. Boynton also has a little bit of…

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Publish date : 2026-09-25 01:37:00

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