ESPN FPI’s Game-by-Game Projection Shows Challenging Road Ahead for Kansas

Kansas entered the 2026 season with questions surrounding its new-look roster and quarterback room, and ESPN’s Football Power Index reflected plenty of uncertainty surrounding the Jayhawks.

Before the season began, ESPN’s FPI projected Kansas to finish 3-9, with the Jayhawks receiving a 2.8 FPI rating and ranking 13th among the 16 Big 12 teams. The model also provided a win probability for every game on Kansas’ schedule.

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The season opened with the matchup ESPN viewed as Kansas’ safest opportunity. FPI gave the Jayhawks a 99% chance to defeat Long Island University, a prediction Kansas comfortably exceeded with a 51-6 victory.

The Missouri matchup was viewed much differently. Kansas had just a 28% chance of winning against the Tigers. Missouri eventually defeated Kansas 38-21, giving FPI another result that aligned with its preseason projection.

Kansas then traveled to London to face Arizona State. FPI gave the Jayhawks a 47.4% chance to win, making it one of the closest games on the preseason projection. Kansas ultimately fell 24-17, dropping to 1-2 on the season.

Following the bye week, Kansas returns home to face Middle Tennessee State. FPI originally gave the Jayhawks a 94.1% chance of winning, making it the second-highest projected win probability on the schedule.

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The schedule becomes significantly more difficult after that. Kansas was given just a 23.4% chance to beat Utah on the road and a 37.4% chance against Kansas State. The Jayhawks then returned home against Baylor, where FPI gave them a 45.7% chance to win.

The road trip to TCU was another difficult matchup in the model. Kansas had a 32.7% chance of defeating the Horned Frogs.

The Jayhawks received more favorable projections against UCF. FPI gave Kansas a 61% chance to win that matchup, making it the only Big 12 game remaining where the model gave Kansas better than a 50% chance before the season began.

Kansas’ final three games were also projected to be challenging. FPI gave the Jayhawks a…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/espn-fpi-game-game-projection-201519137.html

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Publish date : 2026-09-23 20:15:00

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