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When the Wizards selected Tristan Vukcevic with the 42nd overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, I thought it was something of a steal. He was 25th in my YODA rankings — the last player in 2023 to notch a first-round grade in my stat-based prospect evaluation process.
So, I had hopes. Not exactly high but perhaps a bit higher than would be the norm for a second round pick.
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Three years in, those hopes are not dashed, but they’re not met either. According to my PPA metric, Vukcevic has improved each of his three seasons — 55 to 66 to 73. That’s creeping into useful territory, but not stomping in and demanding attention. The year-to-year increments are small at an age when they’d typically be expected to be large. And that move from 66 to 73 is so small it might just be some statistical noise.
Entering his fourth season, Tristan Vukcevic faces competition for even the limited minutes he’s played the past three seasons. | NBAE via Getty Images
Note that his year two and year three PER scores were the same. On the other hand, PER says Vukcevic has been a bit above average each of those seasons, which I’d suggest is a view not shared by many.
Vukcevic is on his way back for a fourth season because…well…I was about to write “strengths,” which would not be completely accurate. He seems to have one strength, which is shooting. At least I think he’s good at shooting. His on-court behavior and the treatment he gets from teammates suggests they also think he’s good at shooting.
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The problem, he has not actually made shots at a high level during NBA competition. Through three seasons, he’s finished well on at-rim attempts, been down-down-and-WAY-up from floater range, and not so good on longer twos. His three-point shooting (34.8% on 282 career attempts) is basically league average.
That three-point shooting is probably good enough for a center to make defenses at least pay attention, though it’s not likely to change game plans.
Vukcevic seems to enjoy setting up teammates, but the creativity comes at a cost. He’s had more turnovers than assists each of the past two seasons, and has a negative…
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Publish date : 2026-09-08 11:00:00
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