Two paths to stardom for Rockets Amen Thompson (besides developing a three)

“If Player X gets a jumper”…

Ben Simmons Disease. If pigs could fly, we’d avoid walking under them, for what should be obvious reasons.

If Amen Thompson gets a jumper, he’ll be anywhere from a top-20 to top-1 player in the NBA, depending on whether “get a jumper” means “hit 35% of his two three-point attempts per game” or “hit 40% of his five attempts per game.

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Look – If I inherit one million dollars, I’ve got a great idea for a video game. No, I’m not typing it out – nice try. If I don’t inherit one million dollars – by far the likeliest outcome – I’m starting a new career as a substitute teacher in a week. It’s easy to fantasize about what Thompson can be if he develops a jumper:

What if he can’t?

Thompson has alternative paths to stardom

It should be said that if Thompson stopped developing right now, and never got one iota better than he currently is, he’d level out at “pretty good”.

But, we don’t evaluate NBA players in a vacuum. We evaluate them relative to their contract. Estimates for the Average Annual Value (AAV) of Thompson’s next deal seem to range from $33 million to $50 million. He’s already a $33 million player:

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Can he earn $50 million without a reliable three-pointer?

It’s not a question that will be answered with a rigorous scientific method here. That said, if Thompson can’t hit threes, there are, to my mind, at least two paths he can take that still lead to top 20ish player status. The first is simple: If Thompson can’t hit threes, he needs to hit more twos.

In 2025-26, Thompson hit 76.0% of his field goal attempts between zero and three feet. That’s good, but Giannis Antetokounmpo hit 80.0% of his. The Greek Freak peaked at 83.7% in 2022-23.

Thompson doesn’t need to match Antetokounmpo’s offensive production, but if he’s going to be a primary offensive option without a three-ball, he needs to approximate it. If he can cross that 80% threshold at his current volume, he’ll be such a dominant force at the rim that he might be able to survive as a star player without a three-pointer.

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Otherwise, there may be one more way.

Thompson can dominate on defense

It’s…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/two-paths-stardom-rockets-amen-093237877.html

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Publish date : 2026-09-03 09:32:00

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