Trae Young’s historical comps have something in common, and that could be a problem.

Sometimes Past Me annoys Present Me. Today is one of those times.

Past Me promised a statistical doppelgänger article about Trae Young. Present Me looked at the numbers and wants to write about Something Else. But…well…crap, a promise is a promise.

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The first challenge is that Young didn’t play much last season. Just 10 games for the Atlanta Hawks and five for the Wizards. He totaled 384 minutes, which isn’t enough to say much of anything. Except, bright side: his on-court performance this past season was pretty similar to his 2024-25. And his 2023-24, for that matter.

Trae Young’s historical comps have something in common, and that could be a problem.

| Getty Images

So, I used Young’s 2024-25 numbers in the statistical doppelgänger machine to find statistical comparisons. For the record, I tried using Young’s 2025-26 age with his 2024-25 stats, and it made no difference in his comps. I tried adding in his 2025-26 play, and it made basically no difference.

Why am I grumpy? Because the comps are giving me the same message they did when I did a similar analysis when John Wall was about to sign his maximum contract extension, which is basically the same message I delivered using an entirely different process when Young signed his extension earlier this summer.

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The TLDR is that every way I look at things, I keep coming back to the same conclusion: the Young extension is a mistake. It has a high chance of ending up a blunder. Probably not as high as getting into a land war in Asia, but…I think it’s going to be one of the worst contracts in the NBA, if it isn’t already.

What makes this even more annoying is that I like Young. I’ve enjoyed watching him play, even when he grifted free throws so much the league literally changed the rules to make him stop. And by the way, new rules or not, Young’s free throw attempts per possession barely changed. Either he found new ways to grift, or he’s actually a pain in the butt to defend. (It’s the latter.)

Liking Young and appreciating his offensive game doesn’t replace analysis of his overall impact on the game. His defense has been a problem. His…

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Publish date : 2026-08-24 22:39:00

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