Illinois’ path this season to a College Football Playoff berth

After two years of flirting, does the College Football Playoff court Illinois football in 2026?

Some may call this a best-case scenario; some may call it a pipe dream. But call it highly possible! Given the history of the CFP, 10 wins is the line of demarcation. In the past couple of years of the 12-team CFP, only one team had fewer than 10 wins. That was Duke last year, the ACC champ with only 9 wins. So I feel fairly safe in saying they are an outlier. In last year’s CFP, there were only three teams with 10 wins. The Illini are projected as a middle of the pack lower top half of the league team. Do the Illini have 10 wins on the schedule?

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With the non-conference schedule, Illinois should be 3-0 when they travel to Columbus to face the Ohio State Buckeyes. I am not discounting UAB, Duke and Southern Illinois, but all three games are in Champaign; Duke will be the stiffest opponent, 9-5 in the ACC last season and losers to Illinois 45-19 in Durham.

The Big Ten schedule is actually favorable to Illinois. They don’t play Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn State, or USC. They do catch top-tier Ohio State on the road and host Oregon. They also host AP preseason top 25 pick Iowa. On the road, they face Michigan St, Maryland, UCLA and Northwestern, along with home games vs. Purdue and Nebraska.

You might ask how that is favorable? Ohio State and Oregon are Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in the AP preseason poll; Iowa is 20. The rest of the schedule is either highly winnable games or Illinois should be favored to win.

Let’s take a look!

So Illinois starts conference play in Columbus where the Buckeyes will probably still be No. 1, if they don’t lose to Texas in Week 2. While I would like to see an upset here, reality will tell a different story. You hope to see a good competitive game.

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The next two opponents, Purdue at home and Michigan State on the road, should be as close to a lock win as you can get. Neither team has made a significant enough improvement since…

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Publish date : 2026-08-17 02:34:00

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