A way-too-early look at each MW’s team’s NCAA Tournament chances in 2026-27

RENO, NV – JANUARY 27: Grand Canyon Head Coach Bryce Drew calling out a play from the sideline during a college basketball game between the Grand Canyon Antelopes and the Nevada Wolf Pack on January 27, 2026, at the Lawlor Events Center in Reno, NV. (Photo by Greg Ashman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

We are less than three months away from the start of the 2026-27 college basketball season and roughly six months away from the 2027 NCAA Tournament. All of it is still way too far away, but it’s never too early to forecasting the new season.

Advertisement

OK, maybe in this instance, it is. But the new-look Mountain West will, once again, be competing for multiple bids in the expanded NCAA Tournament format (which, as a reminder, does NOT favor mid majors). So, what is my way-too-early calculations — no, I am not smart enough to create all these fancy schmany models — for each team’s chances at making next year’s dance?

(Editor’s note: The odds listed below should not be taken as seriously as they probably will be … these are a mere projection where I’m chucking darts blindfolded at a dartboard surrounded by windows.)

Air Force:

Skinny: Air Force lost 25-straight games and have not won more than 12 games in eight of the last 10 seasons. The only direction they can go is up, but I think we can rule this team out despite their roster continuity (most academy teams have continuity, even with the portal).

Advertisement

Matt’s unofficial, uncalculated odds: <0.01 percent

Grand Canyon:

Skinny: Grand Canyon made noise in their first season in the Mountain West last year, winning 20 games and finishing tied for second in the conference standings. Their offense, at times, was an eye sore, though they more than compensated for that with their defense that was one of the most connected and physical in the G5. Despite losing Jaden Henley to the pros, they retained Makaih Williams and added National Tournament darling … Dylan Darling (see what I did…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/way-too-early-look-mw-170000967.html

Author :

Publish date : 2026-08-14 17:00:00

Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source.