Projecting Illinois Basketball’s Worst-Case Scenario for the 2026-27 Season

Illinois fans, who, candidly speaking, are an historically pessimistic bunch, are flying high in mid-July of 2026. On the heels of a Final Four appearance and the two winningest back-to-back seasons in Illini history on the gridiron, the sporting life hasn’t been better in Champaign in quite some time – especially considering that Illinois’ 2026-27 hoops squad is considered by many to be a national title contender.

Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but let’s play a game of “What if?” Specifically, what if Illinois basketball’s season doesn’t go according to plan? How ugly could it get for the Illini?

Projecting Illinois basketball’s floor in 2026-27

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood yells down court Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first round game against the Penn Quakers at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

There is a worrisome trend for incoming Illini transfers: their three-point efficiency falls off a cliff. Kylan Boswell and Ben Humrichous in 2024-25, Zvonimir Ivisic this past season – take your pick. If Stefan Vaaks, whose shooting ability Illinois is banking on, struggles from deep (even relatively speaking), the floor may shrink. (The good news: Vaaks is a really good shooter, so even if his efficiency drops, it likely won’t be a steep decline.)

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And of course, the biggie: Andrej Stojakovic. If he can’t find a way to boost his three-point shooting, then the Illini’s biggest strength could turn into an arguable weakness, especially if Big Z doesn’t shake his slump.

Defensively, Illinois was plagued by lulls and mental inattentiveness throughout the 2025-26 campaign. Who is going to be the tone setter next season? It certainly won’t be Kylan Boswell (who is now with the Charlotte Hornets).

If the Illini don’t have a defensive leader, it will be difficult for them to maintain an identity and find consistency on that end. And that may bleed into…

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Publish date : 2026-07-13 20:16:00

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