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Whenever a new set of rules is adopted by a league, like the NBA’s new anti-tanking draft lottery, there will always be unintended consequences.
Now, when the system is as absurd as the one implemented by NBA commissioner Adam Silver, there’s going to be lots and lots of those types of ripple effects.
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Last week, the league adopted a new draft lottery system that flattened odds overall and will punish teams for both being really bad and for being bad for a consecutive number of years. In doing that, it also brings play-in teams into the equation, increasing their odds of earning a top pick in the draft now.
For example, last year, the Hornets lost the second play-in game, landing in the 14th spot in the lottery. Subsequently, they had a 2.4% chance of moving into the top four and a 0.5% chance at the No. 1 pick. Under the new rules, which go into effect next season, the team in the 14th spot in the lottery now has a 2.7% chance at the first pick.
However, importantly, all 16 picks will be drawn now instead of just the top four with the remainder of the lottery sorted by record. So, a team could make the play-in, lose, and end up with a top pick in the draft all in the span of a couple of months.
By nature, those unintended consequences won’t be known until teams start operating under the new rules and find the loopholes. We’ve already started to see them as teams read the rules, most notably in that teams can not have top-five picks even if they own another team’s pick.
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To provide another example, the Nets own the Nuggets’ 2032 first round pick. If Brooklyn picked in the top five in the 2030 and 2031 drafts but has things figured out while Denver stinks and would provide them another top-five pick, the Nets will not be allowed to pick in the top five even though it’s not their own pick.
Great work, Adam Silver.
More of these types of details will be found out moving forward, but an unintended result of all this could be the freedom with which picks are traded. If a team can so easily move into a top pick despite being a middling team, the calculation for making a deal changes.
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Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/nba-tanking-rules-lakers-unexpected-053208357.html
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Publish date : 2026-06-01 05:32:00
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