The NBA’s 3-2-1 lottery system is here. How will it impact future drafts?

The NBA board of governors voted decisively 29-1 to approve the new anti-tanking lottery system called “the 3-2-1 Lottery.” Starting in the 2027 draft, the lottery will expand from 14 to 16 teams and flatten the odds.

In summary, this is what lottery reform includes:

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All 16 teams will be drawn, rather than just the top four teams as it’s been since 2019

Teams can’t receive the No. 1 pick in two consecutive years or a top-five pick in three consecutive years

Teams can’t protect picks top-12 through top-15 in trades

Teams that finish with one of the three worst records can’t receive a pick lower than 12th

The first 16 picks of the second round will be inverse of the lottery order

This lottery system will sunset after the 2029 draft and a vote will be required to continue it or transition to a new system

The NBA will have an added ability to reduce teams’ lottery odds, modify teams’ draft positions and impose significant fines

That’s a lot to ingest. Let’s go through it one by one with things I’ve heard about these changes in conversations with sources around the NBA:

Lottery odds

Here is how lottery balls will be distributed in tiers with the odds at the top pick:

# of Teams

Lottery Balls

% Odds at #1

Three worst records

3

2

5.4%

Remaining non Play-in Teams

7

3

8.1%

9th and 10th Play-in Seeds

4

2

5.4%

Losers of 7 vs. 8 Play-In Games

2

1

2.7%

The two losers of the 7-seed vs. 8-seed matchup will receive one ball (2.7% odds). The four 9-seed vs. 10-seed teams will each receive two balls (5.4% odds). Most interestingly, the three worst records in the league will enter what the NBA is calling “draft relegation” and lose one of their lottery balls. Those teams will have lower odds (5.4%) than the seven other teams that miss the playoffs and play-in (8.1%).

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Here are how those odds look by pick:

All 16 picks will be selected in the lottery, which will increase randomness. The NBA hopes this change will deter teams from bottoming out. But in the event that happens, the draft relegation mechanism is being put in place to deter teams from racing to the bottom and forcing them to try to win their way out of the…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/article/the-nbas-3-2-1-lottery-system-is-here-how-will-it-impact-future-drafts-175414282.html

Author : Kevin O'Connor

Publish date : 2026-05-29 17:54:00

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