Bucks NBA Draft Lottery Primer: Where will Milwaukee pick?

It’s an important day for the Bucks: the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery takes place at 2 p.m. Central this afternoon. Shortly thereafter, we’ll know where Milwaukee will select for their first lottery pick since 2016: will they get really (and I mean really) lucky and receive a top-four selection in what’s long been called a loaded draft class? Or will they be in the most likely places of 10th and 11th? Wherever they end up, will they use that pick to draft someone, or trade it for someone who helps them become a winning team again? Or will they trade down and try to net another first, this year or in the future?

As we wait for that answer, here’s a rundown of what you should expect when you’re watching today.

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The Bucks’ draft odds

We started discussing Milwaukee’s likely landing spot as the second half wore on, and it became clear they wouldn’t be making the postseason. When the tanking battles finished, the Bucks slotted in with the league’s 10th-worst record. Based on the current system (which appears to be changing later this month), the Bucks have a 3% chance of winning the lottery and landing the first overall pick, a 3.3% chance for second, 3.6% for third, and 4% for fourth. Far more likely is their 65.9% chance of receiving 10th, followed by their 19% chance at 11th. They have about a 1.4% chance of ending up 12th through 14th.

However, those are not actually the Bucks’ odds. New Orleans owned the right to swap selections with Milwaukee, part of their return for sending Jrue Holiday to the 414 in late 2020. They could have chosen to take the most favorable of their pick and the Bucks’, while the Bucks got the least favorable. But they traded that right to Atlanta in a widely panned draft night trade in 2025. So the Hawks actually receive the most favorable of the Bucks’ and Pelicans’ picks (note that Atlanta’s record doesn’t enter into the equation at all here).

This means there is no chance the Bucks actually draft first overall, because if they won the lottery, that would mean they possess the most favorable pick between them and the Pelicans, and they’d have to swap…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/bucks-nba-draft-lottery-primer-144248032.html

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Publish date : 2026-05-10 14:42:00

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