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The lottery drawing for the 2026 NBA Draft was always going to have massive stakes. A.J. Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cameron Boozer have been hyped as an elite trio at the top of the class going back to their high school days, and their presence caused a tank-off for the ages this season. Add in a breakout freshman year from North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson, and the draft now offers major prizes at all four spots drawn in the lottery.
The tanking was so bad this season that the NBA is ready to push through lottery reform starting next year. The bottom three teams will suddenly have worse odds than those in the 4-10 range, and the floor for the worst teams has fallen out of the top-10. The odds are going to be flattened so much throughout the order that the results will feel completely random. Bad teams better cash in now on this lottery, because the chances of landing a top pick are going to be greatly diminished in the near future.
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At this point, anyone who follows the draft closely has already run hundreds of lottery simulations. But who actually deserves lottery luck? We’re here to answer that. This is all very subjective, but there are still right answers. Here’s how the lottery will play out if there’s any justice in the drawing.
Odds at top-4 pick: 2.4%
The Hornets feel like the East’s team of the future after closing the season with the best net-rating in the league after Jan. 1. Landing a power forward who can defend and space the floor or a bigger rim protecting center would be ideal with this pick. Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara would both be a great fit here, but if they’re both gone, I’d also like their teammate Morez Johnson Jr. in this spot.
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Odds at top-4 pick: 4.8%
The Heat never tank, and for that I was tempted to move them into the top-four. The odds are just extremely long for that to happen. If there’s a miracle coming Miami’s way, a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade feels more likely than a jump into the top-4.
Odds at top-4 pick: 7.1%
The Clippers failing to make the playoffs puts the Thunder in the lottery. OKC moving up is the nightmare…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/nba-draft-lottery-play-justice-120000028.html
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Publish date : 2026-05-05 12:00:00
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