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The NBA has proposed an anti-tanking lottery system called “the 3-2-1 lottery.” In this new concept, the lottery would expand from 14 to 16 teams, flatten chances at the top overall pick, and feature all 16 picks chosen in the lottery.
Here is how lottery balls would be distributed in tiers with the odds at the top pick:
# of teams
Lottery balls
% Odds at No. 1
Three worst records
3
2
5.4%
Rest of non play-in teams
7
3
8.1%
9th and 10th play-in seeds
4
2
5.4%
Losers of 7 vs. 8 play-in games
2
1
2.7%
Play-in teams would be involved under this proposal. The two losers of the 7-seed vs. 8-seed matchups would receive one ball (2.7% odds). The four 9-seed vs. 10-seed teams would each receive two balls (5.4% odds).
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Most interestingly, the three worst records in the league would have lower odds (5.4%) than the seven other teams that miss the playoffs and play-in (8.1%).
Those bottom three teams would enter what the NBA is calling “draft relegation” and lose one of their lottery balls to avoid a race to the bottom. This draft relegation concept was floated during the GM meeting in early April, as first reported on Yahoo Sports. It was met with great enthusiasm by NBA commissioner Adam Silver because of how the mechanism would work to deter teams from bottoming out.
All 16 picks would be selected in the lottery as part of this proposal. But the draft relegated teams would have a floor of the 12th pick.
Draft Pick
Bottom 3
Next 7 worst
9 & 10 seeds
7 vs. 8 losers
1st
5.4%
8.1%
5.4%
2.7%
2nd
5%
8%
5%
3%
3rd
6%
8%
6%
3%
4th
6%
8%
6%
3%
5th
6%
8%
6%
3%
6th
6%
7%
6%
4%
7th
6%
7%
6%
4%
8th
6%
7%
6%
4%
9th
6%
7%
6%
4%
10th
8%
6%
6%
4%
11th
14%
4%
5%
4%
12th
25%
2%
2%
2%
13th
7%
9%
8%
14th
6%
9%
10%
15th
5%
9%
15%
16th
3%
7%
27%
I am all the way in on the draft relegation zone. It’s time. The league has spent 20 years subsidizing the race to the bottom, and the case for cutting that subsidy is overwhelming.
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The standard objection is that draft relegation makes it harder for the league’s worst teams to climb out of a rebuild. I don’t buy it. In recent years, plenty of organizations with functional front offices have fallen into the lottery and climbed back out in a hurry. The teams that don’t climb…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/article/the-nbas-new-3-2-1-lottery-proposal-penalizes-tanking-to-the-bottom-its-about-time-024335366.html
Author : Kevin O'Connor
Publish date : 2026-04-29 02:43:00
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