Suns vs Thunder Prediction, Picks & Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 1

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The defending NBA champions open as the top seed in the Western Conference for the third straight year when the Oklahoma City Thunder hosts the Phoenix Suns in the opening game of the first round of the playoffs today.

With a quirky offense and thorn-in-the-side defenders like Dillon Brooks, Phoenix could cause headaches for the defending champs.

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However, my Suns vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks call for OKC to solve the puzzle and roll to a solid cover.

UPDATE: Added a prediction for who will win tonight.

Suns vs Thunder prediction

Who will win Suns vs Thunder Game 1?

Thunder: The Oklahoma City Thunder has played four first-round games against the 8-seed at home over the last two postseasons. They’ve never allowed 100 points and have won by an average margin of 116.8-90.8.

Suns vs Thunder best bet: Thunder -13 (-110)

The Oklahoma City Thunder had the best defensive rating in the NBA and allowed the second-fewest points, despite not playing at an exceedingly slow pace. The Thunder essentially took the last week of the regular season off, benching 10 rotation players.

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That means a team that struggled with injury all year has had 11 days of rest.

Prior to the season-ending shutdown, OKC was clicking. The Thunder had won seven straight, going 5-2 ATS before their skeleton crew dropped the last two regular-season contests.

The Phoenix Suns were the last team to make the field, beating Golden State on Friday in the play-in tournament. Phoenix won two of five against OKC this season, going 3-2 ATS, including going 2-1 ATS in Oklahoma City.

However, one of those games was the regular-season finale, where both teams rested their starters and key bench players. There’s a good chance some of the players who participated in that Suns win will even suit up for this series.

The Suns’ fluid, pass-intensive offense is something the Thunder didn’t see every day, and Phoenix had a top-10 defense. OKC has done well against the Suns’ D this season, however, averaging 125 points in the four games where starters played….

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Publish date : 2026-04-19 16:21:00

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