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The NBA playoffs has begun and as expected, the favorites are winning Game 1 at home. Well, Sunday’s action should be no different. The Celtics, Thunder, and Spurs are all in play for big wins and when looking at the series, I think there is value on all three to sweep and go Under 5.5 games played.
Thunder (-3000) vs Suns (+1300): O/U 5.5 Games
Oklahoma City has won the first round 4-0 each of the past two seasons and I don’t see that changing this year. The Suns survived a terrible Warriors team in the play-in tournament after losing to the Trail Blazers. Phoenix has Dillon Brooks and Devin Booker back, but I don’t think it will be enough against the best team in the NBA as the Thunder chase back-to-back titles.
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At +125 odds, I will back the Thunder to earn its third consecutive first round sweep and parlay the Under 5.5 games in the series along with the Spurs Under 5.5 games at -115 odds and the Celtics Under 5.5 games at +100.
Pick: Thunder win series 4-0 (1 unit), Thunder and Celtics parlay of Under 5.5 games each series (1 unit), Spurs and Thunder parlay of Under 5.5 games each series (1 unit)
Spurs (-2000) vs Trail Blazers (+1000): O/U 5.5 Games
San Antonio has seven players averaging double digit points per game this season and that will be far too much for Portland. This is Portland’s first playoff appearance since 2020-21. Despite this likely being a quick series, the Trail Blazers will get excellent playoff experience taking on the Spurs.
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Next year, Portland welcomes Damian Lillard back and will likely add a free agent or two as they have an appealing crew with youngsters Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan. I don’t think the Spurs play with their food in the first round and win this series 4-0, maybe 4-1, but watch out for the Trail Blazers next year.
The Spurs are one of two teams that rank top five in offensive and defensive net rating (Celtics). Portland is 21st and 12th in those two categories. Victor Wembanyama will be un-guardable in this series and with too many weapons, the worst case scenario is a 4-1 series win for the Spurs, but I think they get the sweep.
I played the…
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Publish date : 2026-04-19 01:14:00
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