NBA playoffs 2026: Best bets for Knicks-Hawks in first-round series

We have reached the 2026 NBA playoffs and it’s time to start handicapping Round 1 series angles. Hopefully, most of you are familiar with my work throughout the NFL season writing here on Yahoo, but the truth is that I am mainly an NBA guy handicapper. I even named my dog — a Great Pyrenees and Poodle mix — LeBron.

In betting, I approach the NBA exactly the same as my NFL. My goal is from the time my writeup is posted on the website until the time the game starts, that the bet and odds I beat the consensus closing line. Closing-line value (CLV) is the priority in my process, and because I mainly bet on NBA main markets that have tons of money traded on them, the pre-tipoff line becomes a very efficient measure of value.

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Hopefully, the stellar NFL results will translate over to the hardwood. Here at Yahoo during the NFL season, I hit over 60% of my bets in write-ups (38-25), with average odds of -112 (52.8% breakeven rate) and grading at 1 unit per writeup, finished +11 units.

With Round 1 set to get underway on Saturday, here are a few futures bets to place now to get ahead.

All odds courtesy of BetMGM.

No. 6 Atlanta Hawks (+240) vs. No. 3 New York Knicks (-300)

While it’s important to explore the basketball angle, this is pretty a straightforward (yet nerdy) math-based handicap. Follow me here …

The Knicks opened Game 1 as 5.5-point favorites against the spread and -210 on the moneyline. My first step is to find the true probability of a win based on the moneyline price, but remove the house cut of betting into MGM’s price (the vig). The true odds were -185, which translates to a 65% chance to win Game 1 — which means the Hawks inversely would have a 35% chance to win Game 1. Let’s hold this number to be true for Games 1,2,5 and 7 — which would all be played at Madison Square Garden.

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The next step is to calculate the win probability for games in Atlanta. Using a playoff-weighted home-court advantage, the Hawks should be 2-point favorites in Games 3, 4 and possibly 6, which means a win probability of about 55% Atlanta and 45% Knicks.

Using (nerdy terms incoming) binomial…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/betting/article/nba-playoffs-2026-best-bets-for-knicks-hawks-in-first-round-series-174303695.html

Author : Michael Fiddle

Publish date : 2026-04-15 17:43:00

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