Spurs vs Nuggets Computer Picks: Our Best Player Prop Projections for April 4

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The San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets tip off this afternoon in a battle of two of the NBA West’s best, and the props board has some real value hiding in plain sight. 

We dug into the game logs, defensive data, and Covers NBA player prop projections model edges to find the spots where the market got it wrong. 

Here are our top Spurs vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, April 4.

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Spurs vs Nuggets computer picks for April 4

Spurs

Nuggets

Castle Under 8.5 assists 
+105

Murray Over 24.5 points 
-105

Champagnie Over 4.5 rebounds 
-112

Braun Over 11.5 points
-105

Johnson Over 4.5 rebounds 
+105

Johnson Over 12.5 points 
-105

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Spurs computer picks

Stephon Castle Under 8.5 assists (+105)

Projection: 7.5 assists

San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle has averaged 8.5 assists over his last six games, though he cooled off with just five on Thursday. 

The Denver Nuggets have allowed the 23rd fewest assists over the last 10 games, and we agree with our Covers prop projections on Castle’s assist prop. 

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Julian Champagnie Over 4.5 rebounds (-112)

Projection: 5.6 rebounds

Julian Champagnie is averaging 5.1 rebounds over his last nine games and just hauled in eight on Thursday against the Clippers. 

Champagnie’s 4.5 rebound prop line is simply set too low. Denver ranks 27th in defensive rebound rate over the last 10, giving the Spurs forward a clear path to grab five.

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Publish date : 2026-04-04 13:47:00

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