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Alas, the college basketball season will come to its conclusion this weekend, as the Michigan Wolverines hope to be crowned national champions on Monday night. In their way is a battle with the Arizona Wildcats, and then if they advance, the winner of No. 2 UConn and No. 3 Illinois.
Four left today, one still standing by Monday, here are some bold predictions for the final three games of the season.
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No. 2 UConn to upset No. 3 Illinois (+115)
If you’ve been following along in this series, we’re up 1.55 units because of Brad Underwood’s squad having a unit on them to make the Elite Eight at the start of the tournament, and then to make the Final Four when the Sweet Sixteen kicked off.
But that run ends here in the Final Four against a UConn team that already beat them once this season, a 74-61 game at Madison Square Garden in November. Then I look at their paths to the Final Four, and UConn’s is just more impressive. Not only did the Huskies have the miraculous game winner to beat Duke, but they also earned a tight win over Michigan State and dominated UCLA. All three of those teams are in the top-30 on KenPom, with the Blue Devils and Spartans being in the top-10.
Illinois has looked more dominant, but played far worse competition. I wasn’t impressed with Houston coming into the tournament (thus why I thought Illinois could go on this run). Iowa upsetting Florida was the straw that broke the camel’s back in the South Region, making UConn the best team the Illini will have faced in this tournament. KenPom ranks Houston at No. 5, but Illinois’ next best win in this run is against Iowa (No. 22).
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Looking back into the regular season, Illinois lost four of its nine by single digits, many in overtime. The Illini haven’t played a close game that comes down to the clutch since. That’s where I see this game lying at just a two-point spread in Illinois’ favor.
Dan Hurley is also a monster in the later half of this tournament, and he has a team…
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Publish date : 2026-04-04 11:00:00
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