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A spread of +1.5 in a college basketball game is as close to a pick’em as you will see. The sportsbook needs to give the edge to someone; anything -0.5 or -1 would simply be asking who will win.
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The Arizona Wildcats are hardly underdogs against the Michigan Wolverines. Even the moneyline reflects that, sitting at just +105 at bet365.
Here’s why the Wildcats will prevail in my March Madness picks for Saturday, April 4.
Ability to Shut Down Michigan’s 3-Point Shooting
When Michigan struggles from deep, the Wolverines are distinctly vulnerable. They went 1-5 ATS against NCAA Tournament teams this season when shooting worse than 30% from 3-point range.
In a game that is effectively a pick’em, that trend becoming a reality would also suggest Michigan should lose outright.
And if there is anyone capable of limiting the Wolverines from deep, look at Arizona . The Wildcats don’t allow many looks from deep, with opponents pulling up from distance only 37.5% of the time (No. 115 in the country).
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And Arizona makes those tough looks, holding foes to 31.0% from beyond the arc.
Bigger Than Michigan
That sounds absurd. The Wolverines are led by 6-foot-9 senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg, and 7-foot-3 Aday Mara dominates the boards.
However, the Wildcats can throw 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas at Mara, and they then have a trio of wings that have the length to pester Lendeborg.
That length plays a big role in how Arizona limits opponents to just 44.1% from inside the arc, forcing shots to be taken from an average of seven feet away from the hoop, according to KenPom — ranking 15th in the nation.
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Those numbers run directly counter to Michigan’s offensive usuals: 61.3% inside the arc and from only 4.7 feet from the rim on average.
In this strength vs. strength matchup, a defensive edge could spark an upset.
Better Backcourt at a High Pace
Both Arizona and Michigan intend to…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/final-four-predictions-3-reasons-133000762.html
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Publish date : 2026-04-04 13:30:00
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