March Madness Upset Predictions: Best Elite Eight Picks for 2026

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One game is all that remains between eight programs and a spot in the 2026 Final Four in Indianapolis.

Upsets are what make March Madness so entertaining, but they become fewer and farther between as we reach the final stages of the tournament.

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Here are my top March Madness picks and upset predictions for the Elite Eight.

Our favorite March Madness upset picks for the Elite Eight

Team

Odds

Iowa moneyline

+255

UConn moneyline 

+175

No. 9 Iowa vs No. 3 Illinois

South Region, Saturday @ 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

Iowa has a chance to reach the Final Four as a nine seed, but it will need to play a near-perfect game to beat Illinois.

That starts with making shots. The Hawkeyes were blitzed early in their 75-69 defeat to the Fighting Illini in early January. They trailed 21-5 nearly midway through the first half, and made just 10 of 29 attempts before halftime.

Iowa won’t be able to rely on getting to the charity stripe against an Illinois team that fouls at the lowest rate of any program this season. What the Hawkeyes can do is look for points off turnovers, as they did in the first meeting when they scored 11 fast-break points and 13 points from turnovers.

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Illinois had an 18.2% turnover rate in that contest, its highest of any game since the start of 2026. The Illini also finished with an offensive rebounding rate of just 30%. Iowa must limit those opportunities, as the Illini rank in the 99th percentile in points from rebound and scramble situations.

Bennett Stirtz scored just 12 points and sat for seven key minutes in the second half as he battled foul trouble. The Hawkeyes need him on the court and producing at a high level to offset Keaton Wagler.

If the Hawkeyes can control tempo, control the glass, and generate easy points off turnovers, they will crash the Final Four.

No. 2 UConn vs No. 1 Duke

East Region, Sunday @ 5:05 p.m. ET, CBS

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Duke survived against Siena by…

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Publish date : 2026-03-28 16:12:00

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