ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama vs Michigan in NCAA Tournament

Nate Oats’ Alabama Crimson Tide will face their toughest task of March Madness Friday night in Chicago when they meet the Michigan Wolverines in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.

Alabama (25-9), ranked No. 18 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 poll, soared past Texas Tech in a 90-65 blowout on Sunday night in Tampa behind 19 3-pointers. Latrell Wrightsell scored 24 points and made six of his nine 3-point attempts to lead the Crimson Tide in a rout that saw them take a 26-point lead in the first half.

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Houston Mallette scored 15 points off five 3-pointers, and Amari Allen (12 points) and Aiden Sherrell (10 points) also finished in doubles for Alabama. The Crimson Tide led by as many as 34 in the second half. Labaron Philon had only nine points but finished with a career-high 12 assists.

Michigan (33-3), ranked No. 3 in the top 25 polls, opened the tournament by notching back-to-back wins over Howard and Saint Louis by 20-plus points. Wolverines star Yaxel Lendeborg, the team’s leading scorer this season at 14.7 points per game, had a game-high 25 in Michigan’s 95-72 second-round victory over Saint Louis.

Alabama is making its fourth straight appearance in the Sweet 16 and its fifth in six years, but can the Crimson Tide advance to the Elite Eight for a third consecutive year?

Will Alabama beat Michigan in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 showdown?

Ahead of Alabama-Michigan, ESPN analytics offered its outlook for Friday’s game.

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ESPN’s matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college basketball power index (BPI) and other variables, gives Alabama only a 27.4% chance to win and Michigan a 72.6% chance.

Alabama is 14th nationally in ESPN’s BPI, up two spots from last week. The Tide have an overall rating of 18.4. The metrics give Alabama a 12.6 rating on offense, which is No. 3 nationally behind Purdue and Illinois, and a 5.9 rating on defense that’s 41st nationally and up 10 spots from last week.

Michigan is No. 2 in BPI and…

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Publish date : 2026-03-26 15:00:00

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