Why (and why not) St. John’s men’s basketball could reach the Final Four

The Red Storm are a third of the way to the mountain-top following their electric Second Round victory over Kansas, in which Dylan Darling scored the game-winner at the buzzer. Now, their climb will become as challenging as it gets. Awaiting them in their first Sweet Sixteen appearance in 27 years is the number one overall seed Duke Blue Devils (34-2), who are strong, yet not prohibitive favorites by seven points.

The Athletic currently gives St. John’s a 10% chance of reaching its first Final Four in 41 years, about the same probability that Cal Baptist had of defeating Kansas. It’s possible, but the odds are long.

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While St. John’s is a top-25 team, all signs point to Duke ending the Red Storm’s season in Washington, D.C., on Friday (7:10 p.m., CBS). Simple math shows that 1-seeds hold a 39-11 record over 5-seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Even if the Johnnies play amazingly, the Blue Devils are superior in almost every facet. They have a top-ten adjusted offense, the number-one defense in the country, rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive rebound rates, and, oh yeah, they have the future Naismith Player of the Year in Cameron Boozer.

That all may be too much to handle for St. John’s, especially if they fall into foul trouble trying to stop Boozer, slip into another scoring drought as they’re prone to do, or get beaten up on the glass as they did in the final three minutes against Kansas, when they allowed four offensive rebounds and six extra points off those clutch possessions.

Yet, March Madness is never orderly. It is not a fair playoff system in which teams have the sample size of a seven-game series to decide who’s better. Forty minutes is not enough time to balance out the chaos of a sudden-death matchup. Sometimes, a team gets hot at the right time, like we are seeing with this St. John’s team, and the margins might not be as wide as we think.

When I last broached the Red Storm’s tournament ceiling, the Red Storm’s…

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Publish date : 2026-03-25 16:05:00

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