NCAA Tournament: Why (and why not) this could be Arizona’s year to win the national championship

For the third year in a row and fourth time in five seasons under Tommy Lloyd, Arizona has survived the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats (34-2) have now reached the Sweet 16 on 22 occasions, which 10th-most in Division I history.

But the second weekend is more often than not when the season comes to an end for the UA. It has advanced to the Elite Eight 11 times, most recently in 2015, but gotten to the national semifinals on just four occasions and not since 2001, with the lone NCAA title coming in 1997 under Lute Olson.

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Based on seeding, Arizona should have made gotten to the Final Four seven times, including in 2022 when it was a No. 1 seed in Lloyd’s first season. The Wildcats have turned a top seed into a Final Four appearance only once, in 1988, while the other three trips were as lower seeds including as a No. 4 in 1997.

The oddsmakers continue to be high on the UA. It is +330 to win the national title, per FanDuel Sportsbook, second only to Michigan (+300) and ahead of top overall seed Duke (+420). The Wildcats are -145 to reach the Final Four.

Is this the year? Below are why it will be and why it won’t:

Why it will

Defense and rebounding

Of the remaining 16 teams in the field, seven are ranked in the top eight in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com. Arizona is 3rd, at 90.1 points allowed per 100 possessions, and its .390 opponent field goal percentage is tied for second-best in the Sweet 16.

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The other three teams in the West Regional each rank outside the top 200 nationally in field goal defense.

Arizona’s ability to win the rebounding battle has been a season-long trend, and in the NCAA tourney that’s gone up another level. It finished plus-21 against Long Island and then plus-28 against Utah State, including 22 offensive rebounds against the Aggies in the second round.

Motiejus Krivas and Koa Peat both had double-doubles against Utah State, while Ivan Kharchenkov had a double-double in the first round. And…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/ncaa-tournament-why-why-not-120000412.html

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Publish date : 2026-03-24 12:00:00

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