March Madness Cinderella story is alive and well

The term “Cinderella” in college basketball March Madness circles generally refers to a mid-major team that comes out of nowhere to make a surprising run in the NCAA Tournament. Just three years ago, in 2023, we had two midmajor teams make the Final Four, the first since Loyola Chicago in 2018 (and no, Gonzaga is not a midmajor). Both Florida Atlantic and San Diego State in 2023 could be described as “cinderellas,” and they gave us an all-time classic Final Four matchup before the Aztecs got pummeled by UConn in the National Championship game.

In the three years that have followed, we have not had a single mid-major team reach the Sweet 16. However, we have had three double-digit seeds reach the Sweet 16, and they may just be the new definition of cinderella – the modern cinderella.

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NIL and the Transfer Portal Changed Everything

In the era of NIL and the transfer portal, it is increasingly hard to compete at a national level as a mid-major. The second you have a good season, and people start noticing your players, programs with more prestige and deeper pockets will come after them. Just look at that 2023 FAU team’s starting 5 — Johnell Davis ended his career at Arkansas, Alijah Martin did so at Florida, Nick Boyd is at Wisconsin right now, and Vlad Goldin followed his coach, Dusty May, to Michigan.

The last true Cinderella got completely gutted in less than two years’ time. NIL and the transfer portal have no doubt made the glass slipper harder to fit for traditional cinderellas, which is why I’m hypothesizing that there’s a new kind of cinderella — a modern cinderella.

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The Emergence of the Modern Cinderella

The last three double-digit seeds to reach the Sweet 16 are 2024 NC State, 2025 Arkansas, and the 2026 Texas Longhorns. Notice a trend there? These are all high-major programs, coached by well-known head coaches, that had talented rosters built mostly through the transfer…

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Publish date : 2026-03-23 14:30:00

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