ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama vs Texas Tech in NCAA Tournament

After a pair of first-round matchups that went chalk in the Midwest Region, the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide will face the No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament in a late tipoff Sunday night in Tampa.

Alabama (24-9), ranked No. 18 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 poll, overcame a brief 10-point deficit in the first half against No. 13 seed Hofstra. The Crimson Tide used a 19-7 run in the closing eight minutes of the first half and opened the second period with a 7-0 burst.

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The Tide ended the game with a 17-4 run over the final 4:14. Labaron Philon was the catalyst for Alabama again, scoring 21 of his 29 points in the second half. He added eight rebounds and seven assists.

Aiden Sherrell had 15 points and 15 rebounds for a double-double, and Latrell Wrightsell and Amari Allen both finished with 11 points. Taylor Bol Bowen gave Alabama 15 points off the bench in 21 minutes.

Texas Tech (23-10) turned a close game against Akron at halftime into a second-half rout. Jaylen Petty scored 24 points and was one of five players to finish in double figures in the Red Raiders’ 91-71 first-round win. Christian Anderson added 18 for Texas Tech, which has been without All-American JT Toppin (torn ACL) since February.

Alabama is making its fifth appearance in the second round of the NCAA Tournament under coach Nate Oats. The Crimson Tide have never lost in the round of 32 under Oats.

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Will Alabama beat Texas Tech in NCAA Tournament showdown?

Ahead of Alabama-Texas Tech, ESPN analytics gave its odds for Sunday’s game.

ESPN’s matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college basketball power index (BPI) and other variables, gives Alabama a 54.2% chance to win and Texas Tech a 45.8% chance.

Alabama is 16th nationally in ESPN’s BPI. The Tide have an overall rating of 18. The metrics give Alabama a 12.4 rating on offense, which is…

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Publish date : 2026-03-22 18:38:00

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