NCAA Men’s Basketball First Round Picks & Predictions: Ohio State vs. TCU

The No. 9-seeded TCU Horned Frogs (22-11) are set to square off against the No. 8-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes (21-12) in the first round of the East Region in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The Horned Frogs, who’ve won nine of their last 11 games, are currently 2.5-point underdogs to the Buckeyes, who’ve won four of their last five games. Full odds, including player props and moneyline wagers, are available on FanDuel here.

What can the Horned Frogs do to knock off the Buckeyes in the first round? Here are a few keys to the game.

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Containing Bruce Thornton

Thornton is the highest scoring player on the Buckeyes, averaging 20.2 points per game on 55.8 percent shooting from the floor and 42.6 percent shooting from 3-point range. In Ohio State’s last two losses, Thornton has gone 9-for-22 on field goals. But when the team wins, Thornton is typically highly efficient. Over the team’s last three wins, Thornton went 24-for-31 on field goals (77.4 percent) and 6-for-10 on 3-pointers (60 percent).

Should TCU emerge victorious, the Horned Frogs will have to keep Ohio State’s leading scorer in check.

Controlling the interior

TCU forwards Xavier Edmonds and David Punch were each named All-Big 12 players this season. The two have been go-to players on offense and with a combined 13.3 rebounds per game, both players are crucial on the glass. Edmonds and Punch will have a challenge in taking on an Ohio State frontcourt that features 7-footer Christoph Tilly (11.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game) and Devin Royal, the team’s leading rebounder at 5.7 per game.

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The Horned Frogs average 36.2 rebounds per game, more than the Buckeyes at 33.2 per game. If TCU hopes to make the second round, then the Horned Frogs must control the boards and create scoring chances inside.

Converting free throws

Ohio State is an excellent shooting team, converting nearly 50 percent of their shots. But the Buckeyes are also vastly superior to the Horned Frogs at the…

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Publish date : 2026-03-18 18:39:00

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