March Madness upset picks: NCAA Tournament first-round surprises

The history books will rightfully remember last year’s March Madness as a chalk, with four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four and three No. 2 seeds in the Elite Eight. But as the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament first round gets set to begin on Thursday, March 19, it’s perhaps worth noting what happened to the bracket on the first two days of college basketball’s biggest event in 2025.

Five double-digit seeds pulled off upsets in the first round, including four from non-power conferences. Only one (No. 10 seed Arkansas) advanced to the Sweet 16, which significantly reduced the brackets busted and eventually led to just the second Final Four featuring all No. 1 seeds since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

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The 2026 NCAA Tournament field is also seen as top-heavy by college basketball experts, but there are several intriguing opportunities for a potential Cinderella to emerge this year. Here’s a look at five March Madness first-round games that could produce an upset this week:

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March Madness bracket busters eye the next big upset

VCU Rams (27-7)
VCU closed the season with a 21-3 record over the final 24 games and won 16 of its last 17 games. A matchup against No. 6 North Carolina in the first round, before a potential matchup against No. 3 Illinois, sets up the Rams as well as an 11-seed can be set up.

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March Madness bracket busters eye the next big upset

VCU Rams (27-7)
VCU closed the season with a 21-3 record over the final 24 games and won 16 of its last 17 games. A matchup against No. 6 North Carolina in the first round, before a potential matchup against No. 3 Illinois, sets up the Rams as well as an 11-seed can be set up.

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March Madness bracket busters eye the next big upset

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (31-1)
With 90.7 points per game, Miami was second in the nation in points per game, trailing only Alabama, while leading the nation with 52.4% shooting from the field.

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March Madness bracket busters eye the next big upset

South Florida…

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Publish date : 2026-03-18 22:17:00

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