Three bracket-busting upsets for watch in the first round of the NCAA Tournament

Last year’s NCAA Tournament saw just four lower-seeded teams victorious in the round of 64: two No. 9-seeds, and two No. 10-seeds.

While it’s safe to say that looking for upsets is often more of a Moby Dick situation than a trip to Sea World, we would be lying if we claimed to not be whale watching nonetheless.

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So, excluding the coin flip No. 8-vs-No. 9 games, who might really have a chance to pull off an upset?

No. 11-seed Fairfield over No. 6-seed Notre Dame (Mar. 21 at 2 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Fairfield’s claim to an upset is twofold.

First, the Stags have thoroughly cemented themselves as one of the best mid-major programs in the country. This will be the fourth time in the past five seasons that Fairfield is going dancing, and this is the second year in that span that they’ve scraped the AP Top 25 at some point in the regular season. For a MAAC team, that’s unheard of.

Apart from Fairfield’s own resume, Notre Dame is an openly-flawed team. The Fighting Irish have struggled through slow-paced stretches this year, and it’s no secret that their reputation is intrinsically tied to ACC Player of the Year Hannah Hidalgo. Hidalgo averages nearly twice as many points as anyone else on the roster, and has been asked to play close to 40 minutes in the Irish’s more competitive games. Notre Dame is just not deep enough to escape the reality of their heliocentric nature. If Hidalgo struggles, they struggle.

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Fairfield’s 28-4 record dwarfs Notre Dame and their 10 losses, but obviously the strength of schedule is a much different story. Fairfield only played two AP-ranked opponents in their regular season, losing to both North Carolina and Iowa. However, they have three wins over other squads who made the NCAA Tournament: Villanova, Lehigh, and Richmond. The Stags strength of schedule suffers from their success—try saying that five times fast! High-major teams don’t want to see them in non-conference play because of their reputation as a powerhouse…

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Publish date : 2026-03-17 12:00:00

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