MMM Reacts Survey: How many mid-majors will reach the Sweet 16 in the men’s NCAA Tournament this year?

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the NCAA. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Mid-Major fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Cinderella is dead. Or is it?

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Last year was historically bad for mid-major teams, with none making the second weekend of the men’s NCAA Tournament and only four advancing to the Round of 32.

Was that a one-year blip or is that the new norm? So, the question is, will it happen again this year? How many mid-majors will advance to the Sweet 16? Zero, 1 to 2, 3 to 4, or more than four.

Zero would break our hearts here at Mid-Major Madness once again. We can’t afford to let that happen.

Let’s look on the positive, Derik Queen is nowhere near this Tournament.

On to this year.

There are several teams who have the potential to win multiple games.

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Saint Mary’s is the highest seeded mid-major team as a seven, but the Gaels have a tough route to the Sweet 16. They have Bucky Ball and Texas A&M in round one before a potential meeting with Houston, who is the top 2 seed and would be playing for a chance to play in its home city in the regional semifinal and final.

Utah State and Saint Louis are both 9 seeds. Great for them, but they’ll probably have to upset 1 seeds in Arizona and Michigan, respectively, to reach the Sweet 16. That’s tough.

Santa Clara is a 10 and has Kentucky and its $22 million roster in the first round. Iowa State, who has wins over St. John’s Purdue, Iowa, Kansas and Houston, would likely be waiting in the second round.

Now, let’s get to the 11 seeds. This is where it appears the teams with the best chance to break through live.

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VCU is hot after winning the Atlantic 10 tournament championship. The Rams were in the at-large discussion before they secured the auto-bid. They have a banged-up North Carolina team in the first round and then either Illinois or Penn in the second round.

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Publish date : 2026-03-17 22:19:00

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