Finding a March Madness champion using historical analysis

Tonight begins one of the greatest sporting events in America, the NCAA Tournament. A month-long journey chalk-full of outstanding basketball and drama. The impact can be felt from beyond the average diehard sports fan. Your coworkers, friends, and family who haven’t watched a second of college basketball maybe ever are in your bracket pools and often times are winning them.

My sister has been in my friends’ and I’s March Madness pool 11 years running now. All of my friends are like me, diehard sports fans. We live for this time of the year. I wouldn’t be writing this full article detailing my breakdown on my method to choosing a champion if I didn’t believe this was the greatest sporting event in the world. I have multiple spreadsheets dedicated to this. My sister, while she enjoys sports on occasion, especially baseball and fastpitch, has probably never watched a full college basketball game in her life. When she fills out her brackets, she goes by team names she’s seen before, what team names are fun to say, and, of course, mascots. It’s not uncommon that she will still finish in the top half of our pool every year.

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That’s why we love this tournament. The nature of a 68-team, single-elimination tournament creates natural chaos. It truly feels random. We remember the legendary runs of underdogs like Saint Peter’s, Loyola Chicago, Florida Gulf Coast, and plenty more. But one of my favorite betting handicappers once said, “Anybody can win five games; it’s impossible to win six.”

What he means is it is completely common for teams to go on a magical run to make it all the way to the national championship, but that’s where it stops. While the tournament feels like it’s always up for grabs and anybody can get hot and win it, that’s not the case. Sure, this is sports after all, and anything can happen, but historically speaking, it’s the elite teams who nearly always win. In 2023, 5-seed San Diego State and 9-seed Florida Atlantic…

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Publish date : 2026-03-17 22:50:00

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