March Madness upset predictions 2026: Which 10 seed is most likely to win in first round?

March Madness upset predictions 2026: Which 10 seed is most likely to win in first round? originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The 7-10 split is always a key piece in crafting a winning tournament bracket.

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Who will pull off double-digit upsets this year?

No. 10 UCF (21-11) meets No. 7 UCLA (23-11) in the East Region. No. 10 Missouri (20-12) faces No. 7 Miami, Fla. (25-8) in the West Region. No. 10 Texas A&M (21-11) meets No. 7 Saint Mary’s (27-5) in the South Region, and No. 10 Santa Clara (26-8) takes on No. 7 Kentucky (21-13) in the Midwest Region.

The No. 10 seed is 62-97 in the first round — a winning percentage of .389. The No. 10 seeds were 2-2 last season – and Arkansas made a run to the Sweet 16.

MARCH MADNESS HQ:Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Printable bracket

March Madness upset predictions 2026

No. 10 UCF vs. No. 7 UCLA

Odds: UCLA -6

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Why this can happen: UCLA guard Donovan Dent suffered a calf strain in the Big Ten semifinals against Purdue, but he is expected to be ready for the matchup against the Knights, who are making their second tournament appearance under Johnny Dawkins. Guards Riley Kugel (14.4 ppg.) and Themus Fulks (14.1 ppg.) form a strong backcourt, and 7-foot-2 center John Bol is a shot-blocking presence on the interior. Will that impact the Bruins’ front line?

SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)

No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s

Odds: Saint Mary’s -2.5

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Why this can happen: The Aggies will make their first tournament appearance under coach Bucky McMillan, and “Bucky Ball” produced 87.7 points per game this season. That ranked ninth in the nation. Rashaun Agee (14.7 ppg.) – a 6-foot-7 forward – had 13 double-doubles for Texas A&M this season. Saint Mary’s is making its fifth straight tournament appearance, and the Gaels are 3-1 in the first round the last four years.

No. 10…

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Publish date : 2026-03-16 13:35:00

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