March Madness predictions 2026: Using KenPom to pick NCAA bracket upsets, Final Four

March Madness predictions 2026: Using KenPom to pick NCAA bracket upsets, Final Four originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Before making your 2026 NCAA Tournamentbracket picks from the first round through the Final Four, consulting Ken Pomeroy’s eponymous KenPom ratings is a must. March Madness gets its name because of those unforeseen upsets, early exits and fantastic finishes, but in the end, it’s still about statistical sanity.

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Most bracket-fillers will make picks based on recency, rankings and seeding bias, but Pomeroy’s in-depth, numbers-based bracket breakdown carries a history of analytical success.

Consider the results of the last 17 NCAA Tournaments. From Kansas cutting down the nets in 2008 to Florida winning it for a third time overall last year, only six of 68 teams (8.8 percent) that went into those tourneys ranked outside the top 20 in KenPom advanced to the Final Four.

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Florida was No. 3 in KenPom when it won last year, and fellow top-seeded Final Four teams Duke (No. 1), Houston (No. 2) and Auburn (No. 4) all joined them in KenPom’s top four. In 2024, UConn was No. 1 in KenPom when it repeated and fellow Final Four teams Purdue (No. 3), North Carolina (No. 9) and Alabama (No. 14) were all rock solid. In 2023, upstart semifinalists San Diego State (No. 14) and Florida Atlantic (No. 17) also fit that top-20 criteria.

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Champion Kansas was No. 3 in KenPom during the regular season before the ’22 tourney, when North Carolina (No. 16), Duke (No. 8) and Villanova (No. 10) joined them in the Final Four. In ’21, along with champion Baylor (No. 2 in KenPom), the Final Four featured runner-up Gonzaga (No. 1 in KenPom), Houston (No. 5 in KenPom) and UCLA (No. 13 in KenPom).

Ten of the past 17 NCAA champions were rated No. 1 in KenPom. Gonzaga, No. 1 in 2017 and 2021, made the championship game in both years….

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Publish date : 2026-03-16 01:34:00

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