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March Madness bracket busters 2026: The best sleeper picks, upset predictions for NCAA Tournament originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
It’s getting more difficult to spot a true Cinderella in the NCAA Tournament.
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There will be multiple double-digit seeds that win in the first round. There have been an average of six first-round upsets with double-digit seeds in the last three tournaments. It’s 18 out of 84 possible games – a 21.4% success rate. Even in a chalky tournament, that’s a good chaos rate.
The problem? Only three double-digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 in the last three tournaments, and that includes No. 10 Arkansas (2025) and No. 11 NC State (2024). Those are power conference teams. No. 15 Princeton (2024) pulled off the Cinderella run three years ago.
That means we’re due. Perhaps Miami (Ohio) — which earned a No. 11 seed after finishing 31-0 in the regular season before a loss in the MAC tournament — could be that team. But there are other options. Here is a look at our favorite Bracket Busters ahead of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, which features some schools you remember from busting up the bracket in the past.
MARCH MADNESS HQ: Live NCAA bracket | Full TV schedule | Printable bracket
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March Madness sleeper picks, upset predictions
Best bets to reach Sweet 16
No. 11 VCU (27-7)
Phil Martelli Jr. led the Rams to the Atlantic 10 tournament championship. The Rams slipped into the tournament — and they have only lost a game since Jan. 14. VCU played a non-conference schedule that included close losses to NC State and New Mexico, and they beat Virginia Tech. VCU has seven players who score at least seven points per game, led by Terrence Hill Jr. (14.4 ppg.). VCU has a tough matchup against No. 6 North Carolina, who remains a high-level team even without Caleb Wilson. If VCU can win that one, however, then it could get interesting.
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