March Madness 2026: Picking every Midwest region 1st-round game, including Kentucky’s challenge

There will be some popular upset picks in the Midwest region. One might be picking against a team with the richest roster in the sport.

Kentucky spent more NIL money than anyone last offseason, and is just a No. 7 seed this season. The Wildcats get a tough matchup against Santa Clara on Friday, and those looking to find a double-digit seed to advance in their bracket might look the Broncos’ way.

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Here are the first-round picks for the Midwest region with all odds from BetMGM (No. 1 seed Michigan and No. 6 Tennessee aren’t listed; they will play winners of First Four games):

No. 8 Georgia (-2.5) over No. 9 St. Louis

At one point, St. Louis was 24-1 with a one-point loss to Stanford on its resume. But if the adage is true that you want to be playing your best heading into the tournament is true, St. Louis might be in trouble. They went 4-4 down the stretch with all four losses coming to teams ranked 78th or worse at KenPom.com. Among the current momentum scores at haslametrics.com, which measure how well a team is playing relative to its level from earlier in the season, St. Louis ranks last among all college basketball teams. St. Louis is a tremendous shooting team, and could rediscover that in the NCAA tournament, but we’ll take Georgia based on St. Louis’ recent slump.

No. 10 Santa Clara (+3.5) over No. 7 Kentucky

All season, Kentucky has had to hear about having a $22 million roster, which is the highest mark in college basketball. The Wildcats have been disappointing all season, including a 4-6 finish. The SEC is tough, but Kentucky deserved its No. 7 seed. Santa Clara has talent too and a recognizable coach in former NC State lead man Herb Sendek. Casual bettors might see Kentucky, one of the biggest name brands in the sport, and take the Wildcats over the third-best team in the WCC. But Santa Clara is fully capable of winning straight up.

Kentucky head coach Mark Pope and his Wildcats have had a disappointing season. (Ryan C. Hermens/Lexington…

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Author : Frank Schwab

Publish date : 2026-03-16 21:14:00

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