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Now that the Field of 68 is set, it is time to start making decisions as to who will make your Final Four, who will be your Cinderellas, and what you will buy when you win your pool. Be honest, we all think about how we will spend that money before we win it.
Before you earn that dough, though, you have to make some difficult decisions. Prior to making those choices, though, it is important to recognize the odds of your 12-seed to knock off the 5 and the chance that the 14 you love will actually pull the rug out from under the 3 you don’t trust.
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Let’s start with the 16-seeds: Siena, LIU, UMBC/Howard and Prairie View/Lehigh. Your odds are long but dare to dream. Two times in 160 games (1.25%) since the field expanded in 1985, a 16-seed has slayed a giant. Not sure that Duke, Arizona, Michigan, or Florida break a sweat in the opening round but it is possible.
The odds a 15 defeats a 2 jump to 6.9% since the field expanded in 1985 and in fact all the way to 13.6% since 2013. This year’s collection of 15-seeds features a 7-seed from the Big Sky (Idaho), a university who only became eligible for the Tournament this season but who is about to merge with another school (Queens), and a couple schools (Furman and Tennessee State) who have not been to the tournament in a combined 78 years. St. Peter’s reached the Elite 8 in 2022 as a 15-seed but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Does the slipper fit one of this year’s quartet of 15-seeds for even one game?
As we move now to the matchup featuring No. 14s against No.3s, it starts to get a bit more interesting. One out of every seven games (14.4%) between a 14-seed and a 3 sees the underdog prevail. North Dakota State, Kennesaw State, Wright State, and the Quakers of Penn. Speaking of the Ivy League, it was only a couple of years ago when No. 4 Auburn fell to 13-seeded Yale. Again, it is possible.
Read More: Vaughn Dalzell’s Cinderellas
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For those betting the spreads, 13-seeds have gone 26-26 against the…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/2026-march-madness-upset-odds-035310156.html
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Publish date : 2026-03-16 03:53:00
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