March Madness predictions: One of these teams will win NCAA Tournament

Based on recent NCAA tournament trends, only a few teams are likely true national championship contenders once March Madness officially gets underway.

Seven of the last eight national champions were No. 1 seeds, with Connecticut the lone exception as a No. 4 seed in 2023. The Huskies were also a bit more talented than their seed displayed, especially as they repeated as national champions the following season.

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Moreover, 18 of the last 25 national champions since 2000 have been No. 1 seeds. The last team higher than a No. 4 seed to win the national championship was also UConn in 2014, meaning the Huskies hold both spots as the highest-seeded teams to win a title since 2000.

Three No. 3 seeds have won national titles since 2000, and one No. 2 seed has won during that time.

Suffice to say, if a team dominates the regular season, it’s a good predictor of national championship odds. Here’s a look at the nine teams that can win a national championship in 2026 based on seeding trends:

Duke, the No. 1 overall seed in USA TODAY Sports’ bracket projections, has been a wagon this season. Led by true freshman Cameron Boozer, one of the top national player of the year candidates, the Blue Devils finished 29-2 in the regular season with a long list of impressive wins over fellow projected 1-seeds in Michigan and Florida; 2-seed Michigan State; 4-seeds Kansas and Virginia; and 6-seed North Carolina (twice).

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Duke ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and is likely the national championship front runner right now.

Arizona is a lock for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament alongside Duke, Michigan and Florida. All the Wildcats did this season was dominate one of the best conferences in college basketball.

Arizona finished the season with a 29-2 record, including a 16-2 mark in Big 12 play. The Wildcats lost back-to-back games to…

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Publish date : 2026-03-13 10:01:00

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