ESPN heavily favors Duke over Florida State in ACC Tournament

One year ago, Luke Loucks walked into the Tucker Center and told a room full of Florida State fans it was good to be home. On Thursday night, he gets to prove exactly how good it feels. Florida State enters the ACC Tournament quarterfinal against No. 1 Duke, with the ESPN Matchup Predictor giving the Seminoles just a 4.0% chance of pulling the upset at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. The models say it is over before it starts. The spread says the same.

Duke is the best team in the country, but the last seven weeks of Florida State basketball say the Seminoles have not read the forecast. They never do.

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The most important context for Thursday night exists in the Jan. 3 box score: Duke won 91-87 in Tallahassee. Four points. On FSU’s home floor.

The Seminoles, playing at home and still early in Loucks’ first season, pushed the nation’s eventual No. 1 seed to the final possession. Duke is a better, more complete team than what FSU held to a four-point win in Tallahassee, but the Seminoles know what this opponent looks like.

Duke has gone 16-1 since that meeting and is now entering the ACC Tournament with a significantly diminished rotation. This is the detail that makes Thursday’s matchup more nuanced than the matchup predictor suggests.

Duke will be without starting point guard Caleb Foster and starting center Patrick Ngongba II for the entirety of the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils ended the regular season on an eight-game win streak, winning those games by an average margin of 23.1 points. That version of Duke had Foster and Ngongba. Thursday’s version does not.

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Whatever opportunities the Seminoles may find on offense, they will spend most of the night dealing with the most dominant individual player in college basketball.

Cameron Boozer is averaging 22.7 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game this season on 58.3% shooting from the field. He is the ACC Player of the Year. He is Duke’s engine, its primary scorer, its rebounder,…

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Publish date : 2026-03-12 14:55:00

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