Diving into Virginia’s odds to win the ACC men’s basketball tournament

The 2026 ACC men’s basketball tournament tips off today at 11:00 EST with the 10-seed Stanford Cardinal taking on the 15-seed Pittsburgh Panthers. The Virginia Cavaliers earned a double-bye in the tournament with their success in conference play during the regular season, going 15-3 in their ACC games, which was good enough for the second-best record only behind the 17-1 Duke Blue Devils.

The ‘Hoos currently sit at +700 on FanDuel to take home the ACC Tournament title, with Duke being the heavy favorite at -330.

To me, there is value in three ACC teams earning automatic bids to the NCAA tournament, and none of them will be traveling from Durham to participate. Duke is down two key guys in Patrick Ngonba II and Caleb Foster, who both average over 20 minutes a game and combine for over 19 points per game. Combine that with the fact that they are already -330 to win, I believe your money is better off elsewhere for this one.

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Virginia (+700), Louisville (+1300), and a long shot with Florida State (+20000) is where my money will be.

Virginia has been steady all year, with one blunder during conference play that came at Cameron Indoor Stadium. If Virginia were to meet Duke again, it wouldn’t be until the championship game, and if that matchup were to happen, I would expect Virignia to be more prepared and more competitive than they were the first time out. The spread on that potential matchup would be around 9.5 or 10.5, and sitting with a +700 ticket instead of the +300 or +4 moneyline for the ‘Hoos would be well worth it in my eyes.

Louisville is another team that wouldn’t see Duke until the finals, but at +1300 it is certaintly worth a sprinkle. Pat Kelsey is working with a very expensive and capable roster that is poised not only to make a run in its conference tournament but also to make some serious noise in the NCAA tournament. Now, stud freshman guard Mikel brown Jr. is still day-to-day with his lingering lower back injury, but I think those odds are…

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Publish date : 2026-03-10 12:02:00

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