No. 1 Duke vs. UNC predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends and best bets for March 6

The ACC regular season concludes with the renewal of one of the great rivalries in college basketball. The 266th installment of the storied Tobacco Road rivalry between No. 1 Duke (28-2, 16-1) and No. 17 North Carolina (24-6, 12-5) is tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

A little of the shine has come off this matchup following the news that Carolina’s phenomenal freshman, Caleb Wilson, will miss this game and in fact, the rest of the season and the NCAA Tournament with a broken thumb.

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This rematch comes just weeks after the Tar Heels rallied from 13 down in the second half to stun the Blue Devils 71-68 in Chapel Hill. UNC won the game on a last-second three-pointer from senior Seth Trimble. Since that loss on February 7, though, Duke has been dominant, winning seven straight games and securing the outright ACC regular-season title. Make no mistake, Saturday night means far more to Cameron Boozer and the Blue Devils than any of those seven or really any of the previous 30 games Duke has played this season.

Since their loss to Carolina, Jon Scheyer’s crew has not just won each of the seven games they have played. They have dismantled nearly everyone they have played, winning the seven by an average of 25.7 points. The foundation of their success lies in their defense. The Blue Devils own the nation’s best adjusted defensive efficiency. Their offense ranks a robust No. 3 in offensive efficiency.

Carolina’s efficiency at both ends does not compare. The Heels are 52nd in defensive efficiency and 53rd in offensive efficiency.

Duke has a record of 14-2 in Q1 games and is 5-0 in Q2. North Carolina is 6-6 in Q1 and 5-0 in Quad 2 games. The Blue Devils are ranked No. 1 in KenPom and No. 1 in the NET. The Tar Heels are ranked No. 29 in KenPom and 24th in the NET.

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Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/no-1-duke-vs-unc-143309168.html

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Publish date : 2026-03-07 14:33:00

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