March Madness predictions: Teams rising, falling in projected NCAA Tournament field

As the calendar turns to March and Selection Sunday looms tantalizingly close, the annual heated discussion around the NCAA men’s basketball tournament bubble has once again commenced.

But for all the debate that surrounds who should be in and out of the 68-team field, dozens of other teams across the country that are safely in will be spending the final two weeks of the 2025-26 regular season jockeying for position on the bracket.

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At this pivotal time of year, some teams are hitting their stride and looking poised for a deep tournament run. Others, meanwhile, are watching their once-bright hopes fade with loss after loss.

A March Madness prelude: Basketball conference tournament schedule

What teams are surging in March Madness projections? And which ones are starting to stumble?

Here’s a look at the latest list of rising and falling teams for the 2026 NCAA Tournament:

Projected seeds are based on the bracketology update from USA TODAY Sports on Feb. 27

Rising

Florida

Current projected seed: No. 2

The reigning national champions once again look like one of the favorites to cut down the nets with “One Shining Moment” playing in the background. The Gators got off to an inauspicious 5-4 start, but have gone 18-2 since. Their once-struggling backcourt of Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland is starting to round into form while its frontcourt remains arguably the best in the sport.

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Florida looks like the clear favorite in the SEC and if its run keeps going, it just might be able to join Duke, Michigan and Arizona as No. 1 seeds.

UConn

Current projected seed: No. 1

If the Gators aren’t able to gobble up that final No. 1 seed, it will likely be because of another recent national champion. The Huskies haven’t been on quite the same run that Florida has — they’re 5-2 in their past seven games after starting the season 22-1 — but one of their recent wins was as impressive a victory as anyone has had this season: a 72-40 beatdown of St. John’s on Feb. 25.

The…

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Publish date : 2026-03-02 11:06:00

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