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After the Boston Celtics’ recent loss to the Denver Nuggets, this year’s Celtics team no longer qualifies for Phil Jackson’s benchmark for true championship contenders. According to Jackson, hitting the magical mark of securing 40 wins before 20 losses ensures you are among the league’s elite. The 2025-2026 Celtics are 39-20 after their win against the Brooklyn Nets, so the question becomes: does missing Jackson’s mythical contender benchmark signal the end of the Celtics’ championship hopes?
The 40/20 rule has held up remarkably well over the years. Since the NBA added the three-point line in the 1979-80 season, only four teams have won an NBA championship without meeting this benchmark. We will examine if there was anything special or unique about those teams a bit later.
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I’m not afraid to admit that I don’t believe there is anything magical or especially insightful about the rule Jackson came up with. Having a record of 40/19 or better means that a team is on pace for at least 56 wins. NBA teams that win at least 55 games are incredibly good. It’s essentially another way of saying that unless a team is a top-3 seed, they are incredibly unlikely to win a championship. A top-3 seed has won 77 of the last 79 NBA championships. That’s not because the top-3 seeds are given special powers; it’s because the best teams are almost always top-3 seeds. The same goes for winning 40 games before 19 losses.
Next, it’s time to address the ridiculous flaw in thinking that winning 40 games before 20 losses is any different from winning 40 games before 21 losses. Logically there is no difference between winning 39 games before 19 losses, or winning 41 games before 22 losses. A one or two game difference in a 60-game sample does not, or at least should not, spell the end of a team’s season. That’s the logical, rational argument when discussing the 40/20 rule. On the other hand, there are those who believe in the Basketball Gods, and reaching 40/20 is a rock-solid prerequisite for winning the title.
I like to think of myself as Basketball God agnostic. I believe in a higher power; for…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/jayson-tatum-not-40-20-093934077.html
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Publish date : 2026-03-01 09:39:00
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