Wisconsin vs Illinois Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s College Basketball Game

The Illinois Fighting Illini look to bounce back from their first defeat in nearly three months when they host the Wisconsin Badgers tonight.

The Illini lost a hard-fought overtime game at Michigan State, but now return home to face a Wisconsin team that is just 1-5 against Quad-1 opponents and suffered a heartbreaking defeat at Indiana on Saturday.

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See why I’m backing the home team to roll in my Wisconsin vs. Illinois predictions and college basketball picks on Tuesday, February 10.

Wisconsin vs Illinois prediction

Wisconsin vs Illinois best bet: Illinois -11.5 (-110)

The Illinois Fighting Illini offense operates with a level of efficiency that a German car manufacturer would envy. It ranks in the Top 30 in points scored per game despite playing at a tempo in the 260s, according to Bart Torvik.

That’s why the Illini lead the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (ADJOE) and have actually seen that number increase in conference play, where they average 1.33 points per possession.

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It’s also why they just scored 82 points in an overtime loss to Michigan State. They posted a 1.39 ADJOE metric against one of the best defenses in the nation, despite Keaton Wagler having a terrible game.

And while the Wisconsin Badgers are no slouches in that category, ranking 29th in ADJOE, there’s a clear gap between the two at the other end of the floor. While the Badgers rank a respectable 60th in adjusted defensive efficiency, the Illini sit 22nd.

The main reason for the difference is that the Badgers allow a 50.3% eFG% on the season, a mark that has increased to 51.6% vs. Big Ten opponents. Compare that to Illinois, whose 48.8% eFG% defense in conference play ranks third among all Big Ten teams, and leads the nation in lowest free-throw rate against.

Add Illinois’ clear advantage on the glass, and you have a mismatch across the board. The Illini defend the interior at a high level, limit opponents to just one possession, and then score at the other end. They take…

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Publish date : 2026-02-10 14:20:00

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