NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections: Top Bubble Games Emerging

There’s still over a month left in the men’s college basketball regular season, but the brackets and seeds are starting to come together.

At this point, what are the biggest remaining games that should shape the bottom end of the field? What are the ones you need to care about if your team might be on the bubble?

Bracket Projections, and the Bubble Games That Could Decide the NCAA Tournament Field

Jan 20, 2026; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes guard John Mobley Jr. (0) celebrates after the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Value City Arena. © Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

(© Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images)

We do this based on projections, and not necessarily about right now. The idea is to figure out what the NCAA Tournament seeds might be a month from now – that includes conference championships.

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Five Biggest Remaining Bubble Games

In one way or another, these five should make a huge difference for all the bubble teams. 

1. San Diego State at New Mexico, Feb. 28
The Mountain West will get more than one team in, but who will that be other than the tournament champ? SDSU has two games with Utah State, too.

2. Indiana at Ohio State, March 7
No matter what, both teams will need too Big Ten Tournament runs.

3. Seton Hall at Creighton, Feb. 7
It only seems like every remaining games for these two will matter for the bubble.

4. Stanford at Cal, Feb. 21
Both teams need every win possible, but Cal will need this way more.

5. Wake Forest at Virginia Tech, Feb. 21
This is about as close to an NCAA Tournament elimination game as it gets.

Projected First Four Out

Akron (MAC)
George Mason (A-10)
Indiana (Big Ten)
New Mexico (MWest)

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Projected Last Four In

aka, these four will probably be knocked out once the conference tournament weirdness kicks in

Ohio State (Big Ten)
San Diego State (MWest)
Seton Hall (Big East)
Stanford (ACC)

Four Teams That Might Screw Everyone Up

aka, these four are projected out teams that might end up getting in after going on a splashy run in their…

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Publish date : 2026-01-25 22:08:00

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