UNC basketball tumbles in latest ESPN Bracketology

With March looming, fans are already scouring bracket projections to see where their teams might land.

That’s especially true in Chapel Hill, where North Carolina’s uneven ACC play has raised questions about Hubert Davis and the direction of the program. The Tar Heels are 14-4 overall but just 2-3 in league games and have dropped three of their last four.

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ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has taken notice. In his latest update, he slots North Carolina as a No. 7 seed in the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament, a slide from last week when the Tar Heels were listed as a No. 5 seed in the East.

Midwest Region

Jan 17, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis talks to media members after the game against the California Golden Bears at Haas Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 ColgateNo. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 AuburnNo. 5 Kansas vs. No. 12 Murray StateNo. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 TroyNo. 6 Villanova vs. No. 11 George MasonNo. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 UNC WilmingtonNo. 7 North Carolina vs. No. 10 USC/New MexicoNo. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 North Dakota State

The path out of the Midwest is anything but straightforward.

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In Joe Lunardi’s latest projections, North Carolina opens against the survivor of the First Four game between New Mexico and Southern California.

New Mexico sits near the top tier of mid-major programs and may be stronger than most of the opponents Carolina has seen to this point. The Lobos are No. 40 in the NET rankings, a better mark than many of the teams on UNC’s schedule. USC, meanwhile, is a capable Big Ten squad whose guard play could expose one of North Carolina’s biggest weaknesses — defending the perimeter.

Should the Tar Heels get through that first test, they would likely draw Houston in the next round, a matchup that could easily spell the end of their tournament run.

Why UNC is Slipping?

Jan 17, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth…

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Publish date : 2026-01-21 00:33:00

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