March Madness: Ranking a heavyweight Sweet 16 from most to least likely to win the national title

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Last November, 364 Division I men’s college basketball teams started the season with dreams of advancing to the NCAA tournament’s second week.

The 16 that remain all have one thing in common: They each hail from a power conference.

Seven are from the SEC — a Sweet 16 record. Four are from the Big Ten. Four are from the Big 12. One is from the ACC. The rest of college basketball’s 31 conferences were shut out. Even the vaunted Big East failed to advance a team beyond the round of 32.

The lack of small-conference charm in this year’s NCAA tournament is unprecedented in the event’s history. The closest thing to a Cinderella is John Calipari-coached Arkansas. Even Gonzaga went home early.

This is the first time the Sweet 16 consists entirely of teams from major conferences, per OptaStats, since the NCAA tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1975. Every other previous Sweet 16 had at least seven different conferences represented. As recently as 2023, nine conferences sent a team to the second week.

Is the disappearance of Cinderella in this year’s NCAA tournament a weird blip or the start of a trend? Many across college basketball fear it could be the latter.

Conference consolidation has led to power conferences swallowing up some of the best teams from smaller leagues. In this year’s Sweet 16 alone, BYU played in the West Coast Conference and Houston in the American as recently as 2023.

Then there’s college basketball’s changing landscape. The loosening of NIL rules and the ability to transfer without penalty has funneled top mid-major players to power-conference programs with more money to throw around.

The result is a heavyweight Sweet 16 featuring many of college basketball’s perennial titans and no unexpected interlopers. Here’s a look at how I’d rank the Sweet 16 from most likely to least likely to win the national championship:

1. DUKE (33-3)

How it got here: Defeated Mount St. Mary’s (16), Baylor (9)

Up next: Arizona (4)

BetMGM odds: +225

Outlook: It…

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Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/article/march-madness-ranking-a-heavyweight-sweet-16-from-most-to-least-likely-to-win-the-national-title-135858648.html

Author : Jeff Eisenberg

Publish date : 2025-03-24 13:58:00

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